摘要：采用基于Vague集的多準則決策方法，對國家自然科學基金11類主要競爭性資助項目的實施情況進行綜合評價和排序。首先，通過問卷調研的方式，由國家自然科學基金項目評審專家采用“高”、“不高”和“不清楚”三類語義，對各類項目按照“評審公正性”、“管理規范性”、“科研創新性”和“社會影響力”四個準則進行評價；然后，根據問卷統計結果，將語義評價轉化為Vague估計值，并利用一種新的評分函數計算各類項目在各準則下的得分；最后，采用正態分布的OWA算子集結各準則下的得分，得到所有項目的綜合評價和排序。本文的研究結果將為完善國家自然科學基金的資助結構與管理模式提供重要參考依據。%This paper presents a multi-criteria decision-making method based on Vague sets to evaluate the e-leven main competitive research funding programs of the National Natural Science Foundation of China( NS-FC). Firstly,panels of NSFC were asked to evaluate these funding programsby a questionnaire according to four criteria:assessment fairness,management normalization,scientific innovation,and social influence. Three linguistic terms,“HIGH”,“LOW”or“UNKNOWN”,are involved in the evaluation. Secondly,the linguistic evaluations associated with each funding program were translated into Vague evaluations,and the e-valuation scores of each program according to each criterion were measured using anovel scoring function pro-posed in this paper. Finally,the normal distribution-based OWA operator was applied to aggregate the evalua-tion scores according to each criterion,and aggregated scores of each programwere attained. The conclusion in this paper can provide an important decision support for improving the support structure and management mode of NSFC.
摘要：以家用轎車行業為例，在明確品牌資產驅動因素的基礎上，構建了多維度基于顧客感知的品牌資產測量模型及品牌資產測量指數，并利用品牌總效應感知圖，對家用轎車行業的市場競爭結構和品牌競爭優勢進行了分析。結果表明家用轎車品牌的品牌資產可由品牌權威、品牌認可、社會認可、功能績效和相對費用優勢等5個維度來測量，其中品牌認可、功能績效和品牌權威是相對重要的品牌資產驅動因素。品牌資產指數的測量表明中國家用轎車存在3個品牌陣營，但從顧客感知的競爭定位上分析，大部分品牌在顧客心中并沒有形成顯著的差異定位。%This paper first identifies the driving factors of brand equity and then uses these factors to develop a multi-dimensional brand equity scale and a customer-based brand equity index. The brand utility perceived map is used to analyze the industry competition structure and brand competitive advantages. The results show that the brand equity consists of five dimensions in auto industry,e. g. brand authority,brand identity,brand approval,function performance and competitive charges. Brand authority,brand identity and brand approval are more important driving factors than brand equity. The analysis of the brand equity index shows that there are three competitive classes in China’s auto industry and most auto brands have no different brand positioning from the consumer perception.
摘要：The two-sided matching problem has always been concerned by the scholars in the fields of econom-ic management and so on. A novel decision method is proposed to solve the two-sided matching problem based on incomplete ordinal number information from the point of view of complete two-sided matching. In this pa-per,the two-sided matching problem is firstly described,and the concept of complete two-sided matching is introduced. Then,the existence of complete two-sided matching is investigated. Furthermore,the methods for two-sided matching in the condition that complete two-sided matching exists and doesn ’t exist are presented respectively. On this basis,the algorithm for solving the two-sided matching problem based on incomplete or-dinal numbers is developed. The result of complete two-sided matching can be obtained by using the algo-rithm. The example analysis illustrates the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.%雙邊匹配問題一直是經濟管理等領域學者關注的焦點問題之一。針對基于不完全序值信息的雙邊匹配問題，從完全雙邊匹配的視角提出了一種新的決策方法。首先描述了該雙邊匹配問題，同時引入了完全雙邊匹配的概念，接著探討了完全雙邊匹配的存在性，進一步給出了完全雙邊匹配存在和不存在情形下的雙邊匹配決策方法；在此基礎上提出了求解基于不完全序值信息的雙邊匹配問題的算法，使用該算法可獲得完全雙邊匹配結果。實例分析說明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。
摘要：Combining qualitative analysis and quantitative study on system dynamics,this paper first analyzes and defines the mode of the third party cross-docking supply hub in supply chain inventory management. Sec-ond,this paper sets up a system dynamics model in the supply chain based on the third party cross-docking supply hub mode. Finally,the simulation analysis of inventory management cases is made in order to prove that the third party cross-docking supply hub mode has a comparative advantage over decentralized VMI mode. What’s more,this paper offers optimization suggestions for the operation of this mode.%采用定性分析與系統動力學建模定量研究相結合的研究方法，首先對供應鏈庫存管理的第三方直通集配中心模式做了較為系統的分析和界定；其次，建立了第三方直通集配中心模式下的供應鏈系統動力學模型；最后，對第三方直通集配中心模式供應鏈庫存管理案例進行了仿真分析，證明了該模式相對分散式VMI模式的比較優勢，并對第三方直通集配中心的運營策略提出了優化建議。
摘要：首次考察了機構持股、流動性以及二者的交互項對信息效率的影響。研究發現，基于3種不同的信息效率測度，機構持股比例的增加以及流動性水平的提高均會促進信息效率。進一步，通過引入機構持股與流動性的交互作用，發現中國證券市場一個有趣的現象：隨著流動性水平提高，機構投資者持股比例的增加會在一定程度上減弱信息效率。這可能是因為伴隨著高的交易量，機構投資者利用私有信息增持股份的信息被更多的投資者獲取并加以模仿，導致股價有偏（如羊群行為）且所承載的私有信息減少，從而減弱了信息效率。%In this paper , we investigate how institutional ownership , liquidity and their interaction term affect the information efficiency .Based on three different metrics , the study shows that increasing the proportion of institutional ownership and raising the level of liquidity will promote information efficiency .Further , by intro-ducing the interaction-term of institutional ownership and liquidity into the regression model , we find an inter-esting phenomenon in the stock market of China:With the rise of the liquidity level , increase in institutional holding proportion will harm information efficiency in some ways .This is probably because along with high trading volume , the fact that institutional investors use private information to buy additional shares will be easi -ly obtained by other investors .Their imitational behavior will reduce the private information reflected by price , thus weakening the efficiency of information .
摘要：針對通貨膨脹風險，以盯住通脹率為目標，基于隨機混合整數規劃模型（ SMIP ）構建了具有通脹保護功能的大宗商品期貨投資組合，實現對通貨膨脹率的動態跟蹤。結果表明，基于盯住通脹率所構建的動態調整的商品期貨投資組合能夠以較低成本跑贏CPI指數，從而保證獲得高于市場通脹率的較穩定的超額投資收益。對通脹保護能力的檢驗結果表明，商品期貨投資組合具有良好的通脹保護功能，能夠有效對沖通脹風險，有助于建立長期價格穩定機制。研究結果為企業和機構投資者在既定通脹水平下對沖通脹風險提供了一個具有戰略意義的微觀選擇。%The phenomena of high initial IPO returns and poor long-term returns are popular in China ’ s stock market , and the traditional rational financial theory is unable to explain such phenomena at the same time .In this paper , based on the behavioral financial theory , from the perspective of investor sentiment and disagree-ment, we construct a buy-sell imbalance(BSI) index, using initial IPO from the investors’ trading data, to represent investor sentiment to study these IPO phenomena in China .We find that investors ’ sentiment and disagreement both have significant positive impacts on the initial returns , and when the disagreement is big , the impact of sentiment is more serious .Meanwhile , sentiment has significant positive impact on the long-term abnormal return, but disagreement has no such impact .This paper provides explanations to the IPO puzzle in China ’ s stock market from the perspective of individual investors ’ irrational biases .
摘要：We examine how fund ownership and trading contribute to the firm-specific information measured by the stock return synchronicity .Based on hand-collected fund trading data , we find only when the fund owner-ship of a firm is high , is the fund ownership positively associated with the information contained in the stock price, which reduces the return synchronicity .In addition, we find the fund trading can directly incorporate information into the stock price and lower the stock return synchronicity .Moreover , this negative relationship between fund trading and synchronicity is from the buy-side rather than sell-side.Information transparency of big firms is better, funds’ trading on big firms can reveal more firm-specific information, and has a greater im-pact on synchronicity .Overall, fund ownership and trading behavior can improve the information environment of listed firms and the efficiency of the capital market .%基于手工收集的基金交易數據，考察了基金持股和交易對股價中公司特有信息（以股價聯動作為測度）的影響。研究發現：首先，基金持股對股價聯動的作用受其持股比例大小的影響，只有當基金持股比例較高時，基金持股能夠增加股價信息含量，降低股價聯動性；其次，與基金持股相比，基金交易能夠直接將公司特有信息融入到股價中，降低股價聯動性，且相對于賣出行為，基金的買入行為能夠傳遞更多的公司信息，對股價聯動性的影響更大；最后，公司的規模越大，公司信息透明度越好，機構投資者的交易行為能傳遞更多的公司特有信息，對股價聯動性的影響也越大。總之，基金的交易行為，推動了股票價格對公司特有信息的吸收，降低了股價聯動性，提高了資本市場的信息效率。
摘要：A growing body of researchers studied the conflicts in organizations , such as psychological contract breach , abusive supervision and counterproductive work behaviors .But it was still difficult to explain the con-catenated mistreatments among organizational agents , managers and employees .Drawing on social learning the-ory, we examined the mediated and moderated relationships among them .Regression analysis of data of two samples from 466 managers and their subordinates revealed that abusive supervision mediated the relationship between manager perceived psychological contract breach and their subordinates ’ counterproductive work be-haviors;Subordinate ’ s job mobility and locus of control moderated the abusive supervision-counterproductive work behaviors relationship;Manager ’ s negative reciprocity and perceived organization politics moderated the psychological contract breach-abusive supervision relationship .We discussed the implications of our finding for both theories and practices .%針對當前組織中各類沖突頻發的現實，學者們運用多種理論從心理契約破裂、管理欺凌和反生產行為等角度展開了針對性的研究，但依然難以解釋組織、管理者和員工3方的負面行為之間冤冤相報的連鎖現象。運用社會學習理論和兩個配對樣本從組織層面對此進行了系統研究，證實了組織、管理者和員工3者之間負向行為的連鎖效應，并發現組織政治和管理者負向互惠信念對組織心理契約破裂的影響后果，員工內外控性格和市場流動機會對管理者欺凌行為的影響后果具有調節效應。最后從組織、團隊和個人3個層面探討了組織中冤冤相報現象的預防策略，以及研究不足和未來研究方向。
摘要：中國股票市場IPO首日回報高、長期回報低的現象十分突出，傳統理性金融理論難以對這兩者同時加以解釋。文章基于行為金融理論，從二級市場個體投資者情緒與意見分歧相結合的角度，利用賬戶交易數據中的投資者IPO首日凈買入構建情緒指標對上述現象進行研究，結果表明IPO首日投資者情緒和意見分歧均對IPO首日回報有顯著為正的解釋力，尤其是當意見分歧嚴重時，投資者情緒的影響更大，同時首日投資者情緒對IPO長期超額回報有顯著為負的影響，但意見分歧卻對長期回報沒有影響。文章的研究從二級市場個體投資者非理性偏好角度揭示了中國股市“IPO之謎”產生的根源。%The phenomena of high initial IPO returns and poor long-term returns are popular in China ’ s stock market , and the traditional rational financial theory is unable to explain such phenomena at the same time .In this paper , based on the behavioral financial theory , from the perspective of investor sentiment and disagree-ment, we construct a buy-sell imbalance(BSI) index, using initial IPO from the investors’ trading data, to represent investor sentiment to study these IPO phenomena in China .We find that investors ’ sentiment and disagreement both have significant positive impacts on the initial returns , and when the disagreement is big , the impact of sentiment is more serious .Meanwhile , sentiment has significant positive impact on the long-term abnormal return, but disagreement has no such impact .This paper provides explanations to the IPO puzzle in China ’ s stock market from the perspective of individual investors ’ irrational biases .
摘要：Order allocation is one of the most critical activities in purchasing management in a supply chain .In real situations , order allocation includes much uncertain information and supply disruption .In order to solve the problem, a fuzzy linearonlinear programming and scenario analysis are developed .Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed model .%采購是影響企業生存和發展的關鍵因素之一，正確的訂單分配則是企業成功實行采購管理的關鍵。但影響訂單分配的許多信息并不是確定的，存在著供應中斷的風險。文章在考慮供應中斷風險的基礎上，結合不確定性的信息和線性／非線性的隸屬度函數，構建并分析了包含模糊目標、隨機約束和情景分析的多產品線性／非線性訂單分配模型。然后，通過數值算例比較了不同情景下企業的最優決策，得到了管理上的一些啟示。
摘要：This paper proposes a flexible and enhanced hybrid three-stage model for efficiency measure , RAM-SFA-RAM, without the mandatory adjustment of the effects of environment factors and statistical noise , which is based on the comprehensive discussions and review of extant hybrid three-stage models for efficiency measure with adjustments for the effects of contextual environment and statistical noise .In contrast to the exist-ing models, our hybrid model not only obeys the non-linear productive functional relationship between the en-vironmental factors and slacks in estimating slacks and in adjusting the inputs and outputs to reduce the bias of efficiency estimation , but also takes advantage of the RAM which can present a new approach of adjusting the different effects of environmental factors and statistic noise based on both inputs and outputs .More importantly , our model takes full advantage of the translation invariance of the RAM to deal with the non -posi-tive values, which can only work for existing models by arbitrary positive adjustments in virtue of the maximum or minimum of estimated slack datasets , and avoids the bias of efficiency estimation .In the empirical study , this article applies this new model to measure the research and development efficiency of large -and medium-sized industrial enterprises at China ’ s provincial level , to show that our method presents a feasible modelling approach of objectively comparing efficiency scores .%在系統梳理現有可調整環境因素或／與統計噪音影響的三階段組合效率測度模型的基礎上，利用幅度調整測度（ RAM）與隨機前沿分析（ SFA ）結合，構建了無需強制性調整環境因素與統計噪音影響的三階段組合效率測度改進模型———RAM-SFA-RAM．相對現有模型，新的組合測度模型不但在估計影響與調整投入和產出時可實現較為客觀地設定環境因素與松弛變量之間存在非線性生產函數關系，以降低效率估計偏誤，而且充分利用了RAM模型全面測度無效的優點，為從投入和產出兩個方面同時過濾環境因素與統計噪音的差異性影響提供了新的分析途徑；更重要的是，選用的RAM具有平移不變性，可使組合測度模型克服現有模型只能通過最值強制性對投入和產出進行正向調整以適應選擇的效率估計模型無法處理非正值的不足，避免了由此產生的效率估計偏誤．實證研究部分用這一組合效率測度模型分析了中國省域層次上大中型工業企業的技術研發效率，為效率的客觀比較提供了可行的模型方法．
摘要：The data in the bank customer ’ s credit scoring often include lots of missing values , which affect the modeling performance to a large extent .To overcome the deficiencies of existing models , this paper proposes a dynamic classifier ensemble selection model for missing values ( DCESM) .The model can make full use of the information included in the dataset and does not need to pre-process the missing values before training the model , which decreases the dependence on the hypothesis for data missing mechanism and distribution model . Two credit scoring datasets on bank credit card business from UCI database were selected for our empirical a -nalysis .The results show that the DCESM model outperformed four imputation-based multi-classifiers ensemble models and one ensemble model for missing values .%現實的銀行客戶信用評估數據常包含大量的缺失值，這在很大程度上影響了信用評估模型的性能。針對已有模型的不足，提出了面向缺失數據的動態分類器集成選擇模型DCESM 。該模型充分利用數據集中所包含的已知信息，在訓練信用評估模型之前不需要事先對缺失數據進行預處理，從而減少了對數據缺失機制假設以及數據分布模型的依賴。從UCI數據庫中選擇兩個銀行信用卡業務信用評估數據集進行實證分析，結果表明，與4種常用的基于插補法的多分類器集成模型以及1種直接面向缺失數據建模的集成模型相比，DCESM模型能夠取得更好的客戶信用評估性能。
摘要：Based on resource dependence theory , this study explores the antecedents and outcomes of new ventures ’ political behaviors especially by focusing intentions of graft to win backup when new ventures deal with government and public official departments .The empirical study based on China ’ s Panel Study of Entre-preneurial Dynamics finds that , the intention to graft is positively related to the new ventures ’ initial perform-ance.Among multi-levels’ antecedents of graft intention , it finds that, at the macro level, new ventures in munificent environment and located in developed markets have less intention to graft ; at the firm level , new ventures with innovative products and services and enter a broader scope of market , show a lower intention to graft;at the individual level , entrepreneurial self efficacy and ethical beliefs are negatively related to graft in-tention .This study contributes to the implication of resource dependence theory in the management field and researches on firm political behaviors in a transition economy .%將企業政治行為的研究引入創業情境，以新企業在與政府和公共服務部門打交道過程中依靠打點行為贏取支持的意愿為例，基于資源依賴理論系統分析了新企業政治行為的前因與結果。基于中國創業動態跟蹤調查數據展開的實證研究發現，新企業的打點意愿與其創建初期的績效表現正相關。對打點意愿前置因素的多層次分析發現，在宏觀層面，當環境更為寬松，所在地區的市場化進程程度更高時，新企業從事打點行為的意愿會降低；在企業層面，當新企業擁有創新性的產品和服務并能夠進入更廣的市場參與競爭時，其從事打點行為的意愿會弱化；在個體層面，創業者自我效能和商業道德標準是顯著影響打點意愿的內生要素。文章貢獻于資源依賴理論的應用情境以及轉型經濟背景下有關企業政治行為的研究。
摘要：金融業全球化競爭和金融管制放松，導致商業銀行面臨的操作風險不斷增加，操作風險已成為金融監管的焦點。因此，對商業銀行和其它金融機構來說，可靠的操作風險度量正變得越來越重要。文章采用基于厚尾分布的非參數方法度量我國商業銀行操作風險，給出了VaR的點估計方法和3種區間估計方法（正態近似法NA，經驗似然法EL，數據傾斜法DT）。此方法的優點在于不用假設操作風險損失分布，這樣可以消除參數化模型設定差異而帶來的估計偏差。同時，根據厚尾分布的特征，提出了新的厚尾分布樣本均值求法，調整后均值更注重對尾部的描述和刻畫。實證結果表明：調整后的厚尾分布樣本均值大于簡單算術平均值，更符合右偏厚尾的分布特征；非參數方法得到的VaR點估計和區間估計考慮了厚尾的因素，解決了傳統VaR低估風險的問題，更接近真實情況；VaR 3種區間估計的方法能夠提升對風險衡量的準確性，其中DT方法所得到的區間估計最為準確。%With global competition of the financial sector and financial deregulation , commercial banks are fa-cing increasing operational risk which has become the focus of attention .Therefore, reliable operational risk measurement is becoming increasingly important for commercial banks and other financial institutions .In this paper , nonparametric methods based on heavy-tailed distributions are applied to operational risk measurement . The main advantage of these nonparametric methods is that there are no assumptions made about the shape of loss distributions .It avoids estimate deviation caused by unwittingly mis-specified models .Meanwhile , accord-ing to the characteristics of heavy-tailed distributions , a new method to estimate the mean of loss distributions is put forward , and the adjusted mean focuses more on the tail part of loss distributions .The empirical results demonstrate that the adjusted mean exceeds the sample mean , which is in more conformity with the right heav-y-tailed distributions’ characteristics.This paper employs non-parametric approaches and constructs a consist-ent and unbiased point and interval estimates for VaR .It has overcome the weakness of underestimating of tra-ditional VaR .We discuss three methods of estimating confidence intervals to improve the accuracy of risk measurement .As a consequence , DT ( Data Tilting) interval estimates turned out to be the best .
